I am not a fan of the Mullahs, or British stooge Iranian President Rouhani, but even scum bags can say some good things. And Rouhani this week accused the US of disrupting the flow of “livelihood, food and medical drugs” to normal Iranians, saying “This war is not against the government of the Islamic republic of Iran, it’s against the Iranian nation.”
From my vantage point this is basically true. But I would go one step further, and say it is in fact a “War Against the World”.
If you are against the regime in Iran, why stop people coming to the U.S. to flee the regime? If you are against the regime in Iran, why impact the availability of drugs, food, commercial airliners` etc. to the people of Iran? Why not simply, directly target the regime itself?
The answer quite simply, is that there is a perverted logic in Washington: that the simplest, easiest, fastest way to topple the regime is to put pressure on Iranians, and that this in turn will lead to regime change. This perverted logic, follows on with a view that you need to play good cop, bad cop with Iran – and put up a loose canon like “Mustache” Bolton to keep spewing out threats, and then have Donald Trump come in as the nice guy and negotiate a ‘more favorable’ outcome. To send signals to this effect, the White House has even gone so as to plant cartoons in U.S. newspapers, suggesting that the only thing he, (Donald Trump), hates about the Iran deal is Obama’s signature at the bottom – and that he would basically sign exactly the same deal – but it must be with HIS signature at the bottom.
While in his mind (Trump’s) this bait might be appealing for the regime in Iran, all this is shitty when you look down at it from 30000 feet. His logic is perverted.
If Iran capitulates and calls Trump, it will provide Trump with a ‘reward’. Trump will, in effect, be taking credit for putting pressure on Iran that he will claim resulted in a marginally ‘improved’ deal (which will basically be the same as JCPOA, except with some weasel language on ballistic missiles – and some agreement to open embassies etc.) And that, it was worth some Iranians dying in a plane crash by flying on old planes, or an Iranian dying of cancer or some husband and wife being separated by the travel ban for him to get some cosmetic changes… to in effect appear to undo EVERYTHING Obama did in his tenure at the White House (including Obamacare). It places his personal vindictive tendencies above U.S. policy and national interests – and above the interests of U.S. allies (who also signed the document [in addition to Obama]). Most importantly, it undermines the welfare of both Americans and Iranians. (Remember, the JCPOA was supposed to open the pathway to economic relations, and Iran was on track to buy literally billions of dollars of U.S. goods).
This will create a new ‘tone’ in International relations. And reward bad behavior. This can not be an acceptable precedent for the planet’s future. It simply can not become a standard for future multi-lateral conflict resolution. It undermines international institutions and forums that sponsored it. It undermines the other parties that signed it and makes them irrelevant. It does this at time when we have an increasingly multi-polar, interconnected world. It simply cannot stand.
In truth, the JCPOA did in fact guarantee security for the Region (especially Israel), and undoing the agreement not only undermines U.S. allies but motivates Iran to pursue a nuclear track again. And backing from it undermines U.S. credibility – which will have consequences on other agreements such as the ones with North Korea. It sets back U.S. global leadership, as an untrustworthy ally. It isolates and undermines America. It is a fundamentally flawed strategy.
It basically pits the U.S. against the whole world.
Not only is Trump a victim of his ego (and personal war against Obama, Oprah, and their Chicago mafia), but he has been bought and paid for by Israel’s Netanyahu and Saudi Arabia’s MBS who also have a bone to pick with Obama and Iran! In effect, leaders of two tiny nations: 7 million Israelis and 15 Million Saudis are telling 335 Million American and the other 7 Billion inhabitants on the planet what to do!
Is that acceptable?
But it doesn’t stop at the JCPOA. Moving forward, to the war games being played out in the Persian Gulf. This past week, we had a slew of bullshit being spawned again by Bolton, with a threat of sending 120,000 U.S. troops to the region. And then, the U.S. telling all non-emergency embassy staff in Baghdad to get out. All signals of an impending war. Then the temperature went down a little, with numerous other Administration officials stating we don’t want a war with Iran, we don’t want a war!
Words do matter. But actions are far more important. And in terms of actions, U.S. is IN FACT waging a war on Iran. This is very dangerous. Sanctions are economic war. And the rhetoric being spewed in Washington, could (even accidentally) lead to war because it is sending the wrong signals out. It is extremely dangerous.
The problem is, a war against the regime in Iran (that we all wish for), has unfortunately also become a war also against the people of Iran, and the rest of the world. Call the Mullahs brilliant, but this is ‘factually’ the situation today.
Why? What will be the net effect of all this?
Every single country in the wider 3000 km region around Iran – and I am including Russia, China, virtually all of Europe, not to mention Israel, Saudi Arabia, and UAE will be impacted. And impacted badly. They are all within range of Iran’s missiles. Join in with the U.S. and you could see missiles rain down on you! And to add insult to injury, Iran has drafted something like 2 million militia forces across the whole region. They too, along with missiles can cause a lot of damage.
A war would basically mean, kissing Dubai goodbye. Its an easy target for Iran. Can you imagine the impact on global financial markets if Dubai dies?
A war would mean kissing away low oil prices, maybe even global oil supply goodbye. Its another easy target for Iran. Iran doesn’t even have to shut down the Persian Gulf, it simply must do enough to raise insurance rates in the region for shipping and oil shipping will die. There will be rampant global inflation. Rampant energy shortage. It would kill the value of fixed interest bonds (owned largely by Chinese etc.). It would create havoc in many countries dependent on this oil supply.
This war could easily spread far beyond Iran itself. It will be hard to contain.
The devastation will be huge. And this idiot Bolton, and his master Trump will be directly responsible for all this. Note that US too will be devastated. Global inflation can not be stopped at the border with the U.S. The costs too, of a war, will make Iraq’s 7 trillion-dollar escapade look like chump change. US will be bankrupted. This will not be like the second world war. This will be an American war, there will be no one that can or will bale the U.S. out of it (like the U.S. did to help Britain out against Germany).
But I am not done, read on.
In a speech yesterday, Angela Merkel (Germany’s Chancellor) warned citizens that the U.S. and UK are both enemies of the Germans once again. The European Union, headed by Germany, should no longer count on the United States and Britain as being its “allies”, warning the EU that they “must take its fate into its own hands.” “The times in which we could completely depend on others are on the way out. I’ve experienced that in the last few days,” Merkel told the German crowd.
Trump has so polarized the situation, that everyone is now out for themselves. No one trusts or counts on the U.S. anymore. Basically, multilateralism has become situationism. US now, has no permanent allies – except maybe Israel, and Saudi Arabia (allies no one can be very proud of). It like being best friends in the school yard, with a bunch of idiotic buddies and expecting your team to win piggy in the middle! Like they say, you are as good as your team – and to be honest they both suck! Alienating Europe, or China, or Russia … is not a good idea.
In Trump’s quest to assert his personal agenda and at the same time reassert US dominance (MAGA) he could very well the whole world down the same bankrupt black hole he came out of. Its very dangerous and irresponsible.
Let me re-iterate. The very best strategy with the Mullahs in Iran, is re-engagement. And it will be ‘prosperity’ and ‘interactions’ brought about by global engagement with Iran that will ultimately lead to the end to the Mullahs. To defeat the mullahs, their whole pretext must be defeated. Religion itself must be defeated. Given that Trump has the support of the religious right in the U.S. this can never happen. But it is what is needed.
The way to topple the regime in Tehran is via attacks on religion. And the people will back the attacks, but ONLY if they are prosperous and secure – not if they are poor and insecure. You win with Iranian population with flattery not threats. Threaten them and they will unite against you. Trump’s administration MUST have a deeper understanding. Be more sophisticated.
If Trump wants a true war, he must fight an intellectual one. He must fight to bring enlightenment to millions in Iran, and I would say broader region (now captivated by fanatics). Religion must be completely undermined in Iran, the region and in the U.S. It must become a war to defend fundamental liberties, i.e. to protect free thought and expression from the dictates of a fanatical few.
Prosperity and trade have proven themselves to be excellent agents of enlightenment. From ancient Greece who were the first true international sailors, merchants, and travelers who endowed the world with core philosophical concepts that led to Western Civilization; to the Venetians who played an important part as merchants and travelers across Europe and led to European reformation. It is in fact ‘engagement’ that brings about ‘enlightenment’. (Travel bans are the exact reverse of what is needed.)
There must be a war against fanaticism and the darkness of Saudi Arabian bone crushers and land grabbing zealots on the west bank of the Jordan – and the darkness of Iran’s Mullahs.
Trump’s war against Iran, is in fact a war against the world. This is the wrong war, and stems from his internal darkness and stupidity. He is unenlightened. He can not succeed.
Again, when we have an increasingly multi-polar, interconnected world – every attack against any part of the world will boomerang back and impact the U.S. badly. Nobody on his team has really considered the consequences of his actions. No one has done any serious risk calculation. It’s all seat of the pants management. And, this approach will, in the end, destroy America.
He and his team are amateur statesmen. You can forget MAGA. And the winners will be the ‘professionals’ who now rule Russia and China. In the end, the U.S. will put itself in a tiny corner and the nightmare of a destroyed dollar as a fiat currency, and a fully established multi-polar world will be created. All will be lost for America.
It is true that US allies have at times betrayed the U.S. It is true that we sometimes need to play hardball. But we must pick our fights and be more sophisticated. Whether it is blowing up the Hanoi Summit with a memo, embarrassing the US abroad by backing a Venezuelan coup which fizzled out or getting American forces into a potential war with Iran based solely on non-specific Israeli intelligence the National Security Advisor Trump’s team will lead us ALL to a global war.
Is that what we want?