As much as I do not like the Mullahs in Iran, I see war with Iran as a disastrous outcome to the current situation. I don’t think it’s good for Iran, nor for the U.S.A. It might be ‘good’ for Trump – but not the U.S. There is a difference. The Mullahs would be wise to turn the other cheek, and allow U.S. led hostilities to continue without being tempted to retaliate right away. Iran’s actions should be measured and deliberate – not knee jerk at all. Regime change in Iran, holds massive uncertainties for Iran and the region. There is no guarantee of a better outcome. Certainly, the MEK – Rajavists, or the Pahlavist Royalists will try to impose themselves on a war-torn nation. It will be a horrific outcome. Not good for anyone.
Trump is fighting for his life, for his party’s life; and a response by Iran that can be ‘spun’ as hostile or offensive would feed right into his narrative. Here are the specific reasons Trump is playing the Iran wild card. Read carefully:
Midterms: In the lead up to Mid-term elections in the U.S.; Trump and the Republican party have NO CHOICE but to pick a fight with Iran. Right now, according to polls, they are about to be trashed. And this means Trump’s impeachment for sure. If Iran want Trump, another butcher criminal like Saddam Hussein, out – then War must wait!
Mueller: At the same time, the noose around Trump – with Mueller’s investigation – is tightening. Short of firing Mueller, he has no other way of deflecting the investigation. Again, a war with Iran would completely distract the public, in U.S. Iran must wait, until after mid-term elections. The theft of democracy in the U.S. is completely unacceptable, and Iran can not play into Trump’s criminality. War must wait!
China: At the same time, U.S. is trying to corner China. China depends on energy imports to survive. Russia and Iran, together (or even separately) would be a source of energy – great insurance for China in terms of supply. With sanctions on Iranian oil, and rising oil prices, lower priced supply from Iran would be a relief to China – especially if traded in Yuan (without the use of U.S. dollars). A war with Iran would undermine China’s energy supply and place even more pressure on China. Russian supply, alone, can not fulfill China’s needs. Again, a war with Iran would play into Trump’s China strategy. Iran can not become a sacrificial pig, in super-power dynamics. Iran must chart an independent, neutral path – always constructively working with partners on a win-win basis. A war at this time would put Iran squarely in the middle of all this. Force China to pick a side. It could lead to a world-war! Therefore, War must wait!
There are other strategies that would be much better than open hostility – and war.
Iran’s military has always been a master of asymmetric campaigns! Master of deliberate, thoughtful actions. This is the time to engage this type of thinking. Iran should refrain from getting into an open battle with the U.S.! The U.S. will pull in Saudi Arabia and Israel. There will be massive bombings; massive air campaigns. The casualties will outweigh any interim losses from attacks designed to ‘provoke’ a war.
It’s a critical time for Iran to work with its allies, and prepare for the worst, but also to try to diffuse the situation. Shiites across the region need to be mobilized. And China for sure. But also, during this time, Iran must not forget the Europeans, who are much more sensible on all this. And, by the way, don’t want to see a flood of Iranian refugees on their doorsteps. The Europeans should be able to neutralize the tension for now. Iran, and Iranians need all the friends they can muster.
Iran must use every International avenue to speak the truth about these attackers in Ahvaz and explain to the world what Trump is up to. Trump cannot be seen to ‘grab’ headlines and attack Iran in global forums and steal the narrative or the show. Iran must respond loudly, and boldly! Iran should be prepared for the Trump reality show this week at the U.N. He must be upstaged; and his every threat neutralized (in English) with powerful arguments designed for the U.S. public to see. It cannot be an open rallying call for war with Iran. Rouhani and/or Zarif must provide interviews in English designed for U.S. public digestion. Trump’s war mongering can not win the day. War must wait. War must be avoided at all costs. This is NOT good for Iran, the region or the U.S. or the world.
Not good at all.