In the age of Brexit, Sanctions are a Gift to Iran

We are witnessing a revision of globalism as we know it. It is Trump, no less, that is walking away from TPP (trans-pacific partnership) and is speaking on the stump against NAFTA (the north America free trade agreement), NATO … you name it. He plans to pull 35,000 American troops out of Germany, and 29,000 American troops from South Korea. There is a new age emerging. The world is changing.

It is no coincidence, too, that Britain is exiting the European Union – Brexit, at is called.

This is a knee-jerk voter reaction to the free-wheeling, aloof, and dark aspects of globalism and the global financial system that have undermined nation states. Most consumers and nations in the West are in debt, enslaved to creditor bankers. Bankers are the real masters of the West. They rule.  And their rule has only increased in the past 20 years. 7 Banks now control 75% of U.S. assets. Over 2000 small and mid-size banks have been closed-down; and there has been huge concentration of wealth in America. A handful of executives at big banks control the whole monetary system.

In the great pursuit of profits, and ROI to please their bankers, almost all productive capacity has disappeared from huge parts of America’s heartland, and massive sections of Britain like Wales and Northern England who have now found themselves without high paying jobs – and poorer than their parent’s generation.  Not coincidentally these regions were the very same that voted for Trump and Brexit.

The world is re-setting.

There is talk of re-shoring! Trump has put in place trade restrictions and tariffs against the EU and China. Production is being brought back to the U.S. – back to the small towns that houses the Trumptards that voted for him.

Despite deep ‘concerns’ with Putin’s Russia, both the US (Trump) and Britain (May), are seriously considering a military, political and economic alliance with Putin’s Russian. And on July 12th, Trump is meeting with Putin – to discuss exactly this subject (after a stop in London).

Against this backdrop, Iran sits with newly minted US driven sanctions.

Once again, despite a push for large scale trade with Iran by Rouhani’s regime – the net outcome of these sanctions will be a reduction in overall trade with Iran. This is not bad. A drop-in trade will help Iran too – Iran will re-shore and become independent, more self-sufficient. Like Trump’s US and Britain after Brexit. A drop-in trade will also keep Iran out of the global financial system.

Iran will be immunized.  Don’t forget that in 2008, when the U.S. tanked, all its trading partners tanked too. Iran, however, remained largely insulated.

And, my friends, the U.S. is in deep trouble. It has more than $20 Trillion in sovereign debt. So much in trouble, that Trump is actively planning a ‘fight’ with Iran (not regime change), but a useful punch-up. He wants the Straits of Hormuz closed-down, and oil price lifted to a point where there will suddenly be a huge bout of inflation. He wants to destroy the value of America’s sovereign debt holders – i.e. China; and in the process ‘kill U.S. debt obligations’ in real terms. If you own 1 dollar today and buy a pack of chewing gum, and tomorrow, that same chewing gum is 2 dollars – the value of that dollar will have dropped in half overnight. Inflation will rocket under Trump. Its an easy fix, that only a President who has filed bankruptcy 4 times could have the audacity to pull off. He is a real estate developer after all! Inflation will increase the value of his assets, too.

It would also be politically expedient for him pick a fight, because Americans are very nationalistic! They will vote him and his party back into office – just like “W” got re-elected during the stupidest war in American history: the US-Iraq invasion.

Thus, unwittingly, Trump is handing several key gifts to Iran.

First, he is helping Iran stay out of the global financial system which will surely be pressured under the heavy weight of inflation that he will precipitate.

Second, if Iran can build pipelines to Syria (quickly), Iran will make landfall income from the rise of oil and gas prices caused by Trump’s belligerence; and continue its exports and make more money selling less oil.

But third, and very importantly, Trump is forcing Iran to trade with others for any goods it simply cannot produce. This is good, too. First, most other trading nations sell goods at significantly lower prices than the U.S. or Europe. I do not know any western company that sells its products at a significant discount to the Chinese – do you?  This is good for Iran. But also, it puts Iran increasing in China’s sphere of influence. This too is good for Iran.

Let me explain. Trump has created a zero-sum game of influence with respect to Iran. The great promise of the JCPOA (Nuclear agreement) was that Iran would initiate a new relationship with the West; and have multiple strategic relationships. Trump is effectively, pushing Iran away from Syrian, Iraqi and global engagement and into China’s arms. He is prescribing his own medicine for the U.S and pushing a Brexit like medicine for Iran. And he is doing this while taking a chance that because of it, he can somehow force regime change in Iran. But then, he expects the newly installed (Trump backed regime in Iran) to look westward when they take office. It’s silly, even ironic! That Iran will build up domestic production capacity or business arrangements with China for stuff and then abandon it all is ridiculous. It will not only back-fire in Trump’s face but is ultimately positive for Iranians.

Iranians are simply sick and tired of continuous, forced regime change in Iran by the West over the past 100 years. In 1922, Britain promoted a coup in Iran (by the Kossack regiment, and Reza Khan) and put in place a dictator to protect their oil interests in Iran. After the second world war, when Iran once again developed a democracy, in 1952 the Brits along with the U.S. (CIA) toppled a democratically elected Prime Minister and put in place Mohamad Reza Pahlavi yet another dictator to again protect their interests in Iranian oil and gas. In 1979, when the Dictator Mohamad Reza Pahlavi signaled that he would NOT renew the oil and gas contracts signed in 1954 (25 years later), he too was toppled and a Western backed cleric residing in Paris was flown in on a French government-chartered Air France 747 and a theocracy was put in place … with Iran’s oil and gas largely sanctioned within one year and Iran’s production literally shut off by 1980. Ultimately, as we all know, Khomeini fell out with his backers (especially after they tried to topple him with a coup). Thus, three times in 100 years, new governments in Iran were put in place by the West.

Regime change can ONLY be an Iranian venture. As much as Iranians hate the Mullahs, Iranians will NOT allow this to happen a fourth time by the West. And especially now, with the discredited group called he MEK being proposed as the new regime being proposed for Iran. Iranians, yes, all Iranians know the MEK as traitors. This regime change plan will not succeed. This is a ridiculous imperial idea. And, Iranians will finally defeat the forces that created the oppression and repression they have faced for the past 100 years. And will not accept MEK’s oppression either.

Much like the Iran-Iraq war, Iranians will unite under one banner to defeat invaders and traitors. It has happened numerous times before in history. And, very importantly, it is likely that China will support Iran’s fight.

This will not only undermine Trump’s plan for Iran, but its net effect will also be a complete undermining of Trump’s ideas for North Korea. Let’s not forget, North Korea does over 90% of its trade with China. China controls North Korea. Trump will lose on both fronts. He is playing the game poorly.

In the end, the outcome of Trump’s policies will be the creation of a multi-polar world with new centers of power outside Washington. Trump will diminish American greatness.

As stated so eloquently recently, “By the very obnoxious nature of his personality and modus operandi, however, the Donald has done much to tarnish the idea of Washington Leadership; and that is a considerable step toward global peace. That’s because the best way to stop more American wars is for no one to come next time Washington puts out the call, and for the so-called Coalition of the Willing to shrink to a quorum of none.”

Trump is an idiot. He simply doesn’t understand what he is doing, and who he is doing it with. With 65% turnover in his administration, maybe someone could tell him that his ‘bets’ on people (and his policies) has been empirically off! He keeps firing people that HE HIRED.

He is simply, continuously wrong – by his own admission.

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