Iran War Talk Actually Reinforces the Regime in Tehran

Multiple U.S. administrations have sent out ‘threats’, yet despite all the rhetoric nothing has translated to reality. Iran’s theocratic regime has continued to rule for 40 years. There has always been a loop hole. The regime always seems to miraculously find a way to operate unimpeded. Patently, obviously, clearly, the very existence of the regime has been guaranteed by the west itself. If the west really wanted the regime gone, it would have been gone a long time ago. The continuation of the theocratic regime is therefore in western interests.

Why? Well its simple.  Crying out wolf, making Iran a pariah has served critical economic interests of the west.

First of all, there has been massive arm sales to Persian Gulf kingdoms. I mean we are talking literally Trillions of dollars of arms have been sold! The latest, most modern weapon systems have been touted as weapons of choice against the bad, evil Iranians. (Please make sure to watch the movie 300 … and the depiction of Iranians as evil souls). Buy, buy, buy!!

It also, separately, serves to give the U.S. elite an excuse to continue spending almost a Trillion dollars yearly on the defense of the world – especially the Middle East! With enemies like Iran, surely, it’s a prudent move, the U.S. electorate support! Let’s not for a second even consider that Iran and Iranians have never threatened the U.S. mainland! Spend, Spend, Spend!!

And let’s not forget that “Containing Iran” has resulted in the U.S. and its allies reducing Iran’s territorial claims on the Caspian Sea, and Persian Gulf. It has resulted in reduced Iranian oil and gas exports. It has resulted in diminished Iranian competition in the Persian Gulf region for Persian (produced) goods. All of which have meant, that Western Oil companies have exploited Iranian oil and Gas via, Azerbaijan, and Qatar! And, Western companies have remained key suppliers and traders in the Persian Gulf region. There has been an economic boom in the Persian Gulf, and Iran has simply not been able to participate in it. It’s been Western banks, investors, and traders. Iran has been marginalized. On the Margins, On the Margins, On the Margins!!

And, all this Iran rhetoric also serves to reinforce domestic political agendas in the West and Israel. It makes Bibi Netenyahu seem very patriotic. It gives the people of Israel a reason to vote for him – because, HE WILL STAND UP to the ‘bad’ Iranians! Stand, Stand, Stand!!

But what would war with Iran really? For clues, let look back at the ‘last war’ with Iran … the ‘Iran-Iraq’ war?

People should note that Iranians are fiercely proud and nationalistic. One key consequence of the Iran-Iraq war, was that the it rallied ALL Iranians behind the regime. When it came to thwarting a foreign invader, Iranians stood united. Thus, after literally a million casualties on both sides (Iran and Iraq), Iranians stood their ground and fought back. And, the regime itself was reinforced. In fact, the regime ended up creating a new Military force: the IRGC, that today is a regional ‘force’ in the Middle East; and a parallel force domestically (to the traditional Military: i.e. Army, Navy etc.) to defend the regime itself. And, the regime also created the Basij militia that has turned out to be a fighting model in other (Iranian) allied nations. It is the Militias in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq (allied with Iran) that have pushed back against Israel, ISIS, and even their own domestic political rivals.

The Iran-Iraq war, therefore actually reinforced and reinvigorated Iran’s Islamic theocracy and laid the foundation of Iran future regional hegemony.

Isn’t there a lesson here for these morons touting war with Iran?

It is interesting to note that Iran spends about as much on defense annually as the U.S. does on a single aircraft carrier. A simple comparison is instructive: Iran’s GDP was about $427 billion, and it spent some $11.5 billion on defense in 2016. U.S. allies, like Saudi Arabia (GDP: $678 billion; defense spending: $66.7 billion) and Israel (GDP: $348 billion; defense spending: $19.6 billion) can more than hold their own. And remember, standing behind them is the real behemoth, the U.S., which plans to spend $716 billion on defense in 2019—that’s $300 billion more than Iran’s entire GDP. The numbers speak for themselves. Conclusion: some perspective is in order. With Iran so feebly armed, do we really need to go around picking a fight with the Iranians (on a regular basis)? Why are we even scared or worried about them?

It’s pretty clear, that the sole purpose of our actions was to sell the American people and our regional allies on the case for more arms purchases. Iran is a ‘chosen’ false enemy – not a real one.

There are psychological aspects to this too. Why do we maintain them as an enemy? Surely it isn’t because we can’t get over the hostage situation. After all, the Viet Cong killed far more Americans and wounded many more, but we send trade delegations and have repaired relations.

So what gives? Tel Aviv and Riyadh keep us tidally locked and fixated on governments they don’t like, and that is Tehran. Tel Aviv more than Riyadh; that is so entrenched in our political system because of the large Jewish lobby in Congress.

Isn’t it clear that the Neocons and the MIC have us fighting all the wrong, fake wars and not fighting the real wars we need to be fighting. I have always said that Iran and US are Natural allies, but it’s us who have lost our way not them. Our so called allies have wrapped us around their finger.

Existing issues between Iran and us will not resolve themselves in this way, and neither war nor bombing will help to ease the tensions, which we have caused and we have to correct. So why are we spewing out all this rhetoric?

These war-mongers, or so-called neoconservatives are the same lamebrains that thought it was a good idea to advise the Administration of George W Bush to invade Iraq (FAIL), start a nation building exercise in Afghanistan (FAIL), and use the US military as the primary method of fighting terrorism (FAIL). The neoconservatives had a record of 100% failure: every policy position they championed, every military action they favored, and it has turned out Very, VERY badly for the USA.

The policies they championed and cheered on garnered the USA the worst string of foreign policy and national security disasters in history; cost this nation trillions of dollars; gave Al Qaida a massive victory over the US and contributed to the worst economic disaster since the Great Depression.

This now begs the question: who considers these incompetents to be “prominent” in anything other than failure?

Well, they haven’t really failed. A lot of money has been spent on Arms, and that is who supports them: Arms merchants!

They’ve been so excited by their “success” in Iraq and Afghanistan, they’ve been hot to trot to attack Iran. Apparently, these “neoconservatives” aren’t satisfied with the damage they’ve already done. In short, the USA would be better off if those people were advising our adversaries – because with friends like these – we don’t need enemies.

Ever since the early 1980s Israeli leaders have been warning the world, and the United States in particular, about the dangers of a nuclear Iran. Time and again successive Israeli leaders have traveled to Washington to raise the issue of the rising danger of Iran and the need for a regime change in Tehran with the incumbent U.S. president. However, none have been as adamant as Prime Minister Netanyahu in his insistence and perseverance about the need for a military solution to the Iran problem.

Rebuffed by the hawkish President George W. Bush and feeling even less loved by the more moderate President Obama, Mr. Netanyahu has been doggedly beating the drums of war at home, seeing to it that it is loudly broadcast across the world. However, a number of Iran analysts have dismissed the talk war originating in Israel as a tactical ploy by Mr. Netanyahu to force the U.S. and its European partners to ratchet up sanctions on the Iranian regime.

A closer examination of Mr. Netanyahu’s record and his philosophical approach to the problems of Middle East leads us to conclude that the talk of war is more than rhetoric and, indeed, indicative of his intent.

Most mainstream Israeli analysts, as well as their U.S. counterparts, agree that a bombing of the Iranian nuclear facilities will have three significant consequences.

First, it will drive the disenchanted Iranian population into the arms of a brutal regime they now despise. Second, it will make the Iranian policy makers more determined to weaponize their nuclear program, if they have already made such a determination. Third, the ensuing oil market disruptions could devastate the world’s equity markets and be another blow to the fragile U.S. economic recovery. Evidence from the eight-year Iran-Iraq war, and the well-documented nationalist attitude of the Iranians, leaves no doubt regarding the first consequence.

The second is also supported by many analysts on the ground that although enrichment facilities can be bombed the know-how cannot. The argument is further reinforced by the observation that a humiliated regime, with no place to flee to, will become more determined to stay in power and to acquire the bomb as an insurance policy against future attacks.

It is these consequences that most analysts point to, when argue that Israelis are simply bluffing.

However, this overlooks the fact that Mr. Netanyahu and his right-wing allies in both Israel and the U.S. have a need for the continued reference to a deadly adversary. As long as the world remains convinced that Israel faces an existential threat from Iran, the resolution of the Palestinian problem will not become a top priority.

Meanwhile, bulldozers will continue to destroy Palestinian homes and cranes remain busy constructing Israeli homes in their places, further changing creating new “facts on the ground.” On the other hand, a negotiated solution to the Iranian nuclear issue will force the Israeli government to solve the Palestinian problem sooner, depriving it of this valuable option. From Mr. Netanyahu’s perspective, the bogeyman’s presence is an indispensable part of his tool kit to postpone peace.

And, for their part, Iranian policy makers have figured out exactly the same opportunity in reverse i.e. the real nature of the adversaries they face are the people of Iran itself. Millions of Iranian citizens poured onto the streets of Tehran in the aftermath of fraudulent 2009, and this provided the country’s leadership the unambiguous signal that their days would be numbered unless they find a way to unite the citizenry. Realizing that an accommodation with the U.S. and its allies will only buy them a short-lived reprieve, they rejected anyone’s offer of engagement and ratcheted their bellicose rhetoric. War mongering, has served the regime in Tehran well too. It’s been a gift.

In essence, politicians on both sides, see real value in war mongering! The rhetoric serves valuable political agendas in Washington, Tel Aviv and Tehran. It seems all parties have an agreement for a path to the future; rhetoric in support of a bloody war which is actually intended to strengthen their own positions.

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