When the whole world appears to be against you and you survive 35 years – there must be some amazing survival strategies involved. The Mullahs in Iran have been a resilient bunch of criminals. Contrary to many predictions and in deed provocations, the Mullahs have now lasted longer in power player in government in Iran for at least the last 100 years. Not bad eh? So how did they avoid being toppled? Here are 7 strategies they executed (brilliantly) and 1 bonus strategy that has also been extremely effective but is downright evil…. Maybe there is something to be learnt from their brilliant maneuvers!
1) They got their hands on Nukes: Recognizing the potential for an all-out invasion (from a frustrated West and Southern Persian Gulf Arab States) after financing Iraq in its invasion and 8 years of a brutal war with Iran; the mullahs were somehow able to get their hands on rogue nuclear war heads in the Ukraine. They were suddenly available after the splinter of the USSR. Every industry and every game has a nuclear option. You must find it and own it (recognizing that only a few players in any industry ever get their hands on it). Oh, and by the way, I have news for the U.S. they will never give up their enrichment capacity (and as for the warheads, they have copied all the components and have even tested one, so the U.S. can grab the Ukrainian warheads, but it would be of no use).
2) They created multiple (parallel) armies: Recognizing that one powerful strategy their enemies might employ might include an Army coup, the Mullahs created not one but two powerful parallel armies under their tight control. Coup planners might be able to persuade one army branch, but surely they can’t persuade all three. Thus during the Iraq war, the Mullahs created the Islamic Republic Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Volunteer Militia (the Basij). The IRGC even has its own Navy and Air Force. And the Basij number something like 500,000 volunteers (who somehow receive special privileges like low cost housing, good jobs in the government and religious apparatus [that by the way controls 75% of Iran’s economy). No one branch has the military capacity to thwart the other two. Brilliant – isn’t it? This strategy was being deployed by Morsi in Egypt (at the behest of the Iranians), when he was caught red handed and his militia was quickly disarmed. And it is precisely this strategy that is now propping up the Assad regime in Syria (Iran’s ally) – it is in fact the Al Shabab Militia and the Hezbollah Militia that is fighting the fight for Assad (and winning). Developing parallel paths to accomplish goals has value! It the American NRA’s argument on gun rights – after all – being played out in the Middle East.
3) They maintained full loyalty to their British masters: Obviously the Mullahs were not smart enough to figure all this out by themselves, and received considerable guidance from their British masters who did not and do not want a return of Iran to American control. The Brits having persuaded the Americans to topple their ally (the Shah) created the most anti-American atmosphere in Iran; and simply kept the “Americans” out. All intelligence in Iran was being driven out by the Brits or Israelis – but America had no men on the ground, and very limited information. The Brits carefully grabbed Iranian assets in the Caspian Sea and Southern Persian Gulf and broke American sanctions through their colonial outpost in Dubai. They have made a killing, and in turn they have protected the Mullahs from invasion. One high level political attaché after another in Washington (such as Matthew Gould, who is not Britain’s ambassador to Israel) has spent countless hours persuading the Americans to back off… sanctions yes, but invasion no! And in turn they have protected these Mullahs. There have been direct flights and diplomatic relations with Britain over 30 years, and even when the Brits (as a fake show of solidarity with America) closed their embassy, they are now (one year later opening it up again…now that British educated Rouhani is in office). There are two business lesson here is, stick to your knitting and know where real value is created or as they say in Britain which side your bread is buttered! The Brits for some reason are ‘stuck’ on grabbing Iranian oil and gas and there is tremendous value in it. And the regime in Tehran has simply played along – even if the South Pars fields are being exploited at a ratio of 8:1 (Qatar:Iran – when it should be 50/50) or even when Azerbaijan (and it partner BP) are clearly, absolutely drilling in Iranian waters – no matter which treaty you look at!!! The Mullahs are strangely silent.
4) They have successfully kept their opposition outside Iran: If you are caught in opposition to the regime, you are either quickly (summarily) killed or they tacitly allow you to escape the country and go overseas as an asylum seeker. There are literally 5 million expat Iranians, most of which got their residency statuses through political asylum. They have cleverly given their some opponents an out, an escape route! And then simply kept them outside. This way, any one with courage to stand up and be counted is killed or leaves…and the rest or Iran simply has to suck it up and live in fear. Very clever indeed. Also, they have kept the U.S. out of Iran, there has been no engagement, no rapprochement. Keeping the U.S. out has enabled them to reduce their internal surveillance complexities and stay more focused on dealing with internal opposition. The lesson here is keep your competitors busy in markets where there is no long-term future…away from where the real prize truly is.
5) And with their external Opponents, they have cleverly splintered and humiliated them: There are literally dozens of opposition groups, like Iranian TV satellite TV channels. None of them are working together in a united front, and they all hate each other. The regime has even financed rogue TV stations to create hatred among the groups and have one opposition group humiliate others. They are all fighting each other – instead of the regime. And ultimately, the West has not been able to develop a coherent and credible opposition or option to rule Iran once the Mullahs are gone. The loudest ‘opposition’ group, the MEK/NCRI/MKO/MONKEYS are the most hated inside and outside Iran, and the regime has tacitly promoted them because they know that they will never be a credible force…with both their Marxist and Murderous history. Without a credible opposition, the West has had no option to somehow come to terms with the Regime. Creating false or radical opposition, is the best way to lead in any political market. (Democrats take note, the Tea Party crowd actually handed you some important seats in congress). Brilliant.
6) They made the cost of the Iraq war very high, and the Afghan war very low: Yes, the U.S. got bogged down in Iraq and got tied up in a sectarian war with one side (the Shia) being backed and trained almost totally by Iran. The U.S. could not stabilize Iraq, and ended up staying longer and spending far more money to ‘win the peace’. In Afghanistan they demonstrated to the U.S. how capable they can be in ‘partnering’ with the U.S. to topple the Taliban. The experience in Iraq was so traumatic for the U.S. it now fears another invasion, another war! In effect the grand thought of an invasion (which Dick Cheney and George Bush espoused) has largely disappeared from Washington. Its talk of engagement, appeasement… and the strategic value of engagement! There is talk now of ‘partnering with the Mullahs’! The comparable strategy here is what I call the “Condord” strategy, while Britain and France put all their resources behind developing the Concord, America quietly developed a series of airliners all the way from 707 to 727, 737, 747 … The Concord, once developed was a dog, mainly because it could NOT get landing rights at key US airports where it needed to land to have viable (high profit) routes. Brilliant, isn’t it? It pushed back European competition by decades – and squarely put Boeing in the lead. It’s only now 40 years later that the Europeans have woken up and are in a cold (economic) war with the U.S. …and they just pulled off a reverse dynamic. Europe’s Mullah puppets made the war in Iraq simply too expensive for the U.S. to even dream of any more military action in the Middle East (which clears their path to grabbing all the loot).
7) They have cornered two illicit markets with players that will protect their backs. This is what I call the grand “Bonus strategy” is they have partnered deeply with organized crime throughout the world, becoming the largest brokers of Afghan heroin and human organ parts. This too keeps them inoculated.
Iran is the transshipment point of almost 70% of the heroin produced in Afghanistan. And Afghanistan is controls over 90% of opium and heroin production globally. These Mullahs are fully in bed with the scum that ship these drugs throughout the world and the criminal gangs that they are part of.
Their internal brutality and executions have provided them with large volumes of human organs from dead prisoners which they have in turn flogged on the global markets. Hospitals from Dubai to the U.S.A. now depend on Iranian organ supplies and along the way, the Mullahs have partnered with the deepest, dirtiest criminal gangs in the West. Needless to say, these criminals have deep political connections too, who are also watching their backs.
Illegal drugs and trade in human organs are industries that are significantly larger than the “legal drug” business. Just think about this statement. Yes, larger in value (dollars) than legal drugs. Needless to say these criminal gangs have plenty of cash to throw around – and buy politicians all the way up to the very top. Without Iran now, these two industries would be dead. And there is simply too much money on the table for these criminals to let it happen. The interesting thing about the Human Organ market is that in fact Ultra-Orthodox Jews control this market from Israel and New York. And it is these “Ultra-Orthodox” communities that are the bedrock of Netenyahu’s support in Israel. In essence, it makes all of Netenyahu’s anti-Iranian rhetoric complete bullshit…and in the end simply a dog barking with no intentions of biting at all. In a strange and ironic way, Netenyahu may be the Mullahs greatest ‘protector’; and it’s a unique signal that in fact the Mullahs may turn on both Assad and Hezbollah one day and allow the Israeli’s to simply walk in and grab all the oil and gas they want along Lebanon and Syria’s Mediterranean shores.
The Mullahs have been incredibly cunning. And they have woven a mighty web of deceit. There is a childhood rhyme isn’t there? Oh what a mighty web they weave when their plan is to deceive.
The Mullahs could teach Machiavelli a thing or two.