Forget about Kuwait, forget about Bahrain, and forget about Dubai or Dharan … the streets of Haifa (Israel) will soon be paved with gold. Yes, Israel will become a major Petro-state, on a scale very few people know or can even imagine. Israel will become the wealthiest country in the world and Israelis will become the new ‘Oil Barons’ of the 21st Century!! Yes, Yes, Yes!!
According to the U.S. geological survey in 2010 the Levant basin (that’s the part of the Mediterranean Sea between Israel, Cyprus and Turkey), contains at least 122 Trillion (yes, that’s 12 zeros) cubic feet of gas. And there is over 2 billion (that’s 9 zeros) barrels of oil in that region too. The largest single find of energy in the 21st century – that has changed every economist’s prediction about “Peak Oil” and the end of oil as a resource for humanity. This is trillions of dollars in resource value. It’s a major find.
Israel has already started exploitation of two fields in the region – the Leviathan and Tamar fields only 55 miles off the coast of Haifa. And these two fields will provide enough energy to ensure Israel stays self-sufficient in terms of energy for over 15 years. This will actually provide Israel with tremendous strategic latitude too, because in the past during the times when Israel has been at war, no tankers would or could supply Israel because insurance carriers were unwilling to insure the ships transporting fuel to Israel. But now, with its own energy supply, Israel can pick a fight with anyone. Israel’s oil boom, means it can go boom-boom with every one of its neighbors!!
It also turns out that Israel’s oil is of extremely high quality – and can command a premium in global markets.
But there is a scary side to all this. Where do you want me to start?
Yes, the oil and gas is near Israel’s shorelines, but in some places it’s very deep below the Mediterranean sea bed surface… some 31,000 feet below. But with modern technology, it can be recovered.
Then there is the hard fact that while the Oil can be refined locally and exported using tankers – the natural gas has to be piped to major markets outside Israel. And there-in lies a major problem. It is technically very difficult to put a pipeline across the Mediterranean, across the Levant to Greece, to then feed energy hungry Eastern and Western Europe. The distance is very long, and the sea bed is too deep in many areas. The easiest, cheapest route is across Lebanon, then Syria to Turkey where they can simply feed into Turkey’s Nabucco pipeline which is operating at relatively low capacities right now.
And another issue is that many of the fields traverse across Israel’s border with Lebanon; and there are fields off the coast in Gaza (the Palestinians could be rolling in gold too…yes!). And there are fields off Syria and both Greek and Turkish Cyprus!!
Do you see the problems? Every inch of the Mediterranean Sea will be worth millions of dollars. There are serious border disputes, and above all does Israel really want Palestinians in Gaza rolling in gold too?
Indeed. Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri stated that Israel is “ignoring the fact that according to the maps the deposits extend into Lebanese waters.” Agence France-Presse reported on June 9th that Israeli Minister of National Infrastructures Uzi Landau responded “We will not hesitate to use our force and strength to protect not only the rule of law but the international maritime law”. Robbie Sable, a professor of international law at Jerusalem’s Hebrew University, has stated that the claims may be complex due to Lebanon’s border with Israel being indented, making it harder to establish where Israel’s sea boundary ends and Lebanese waters begin. Israel’s respect for international law is something new!
But everything that is happening now in the Middle East is directly related to this massive energy boom. To solve the Lebanese border issue, Lebanon will have to be ‘subdued’ – with Israel taking ownership of at least a 50 mile buffer zone across its northern border with Lebanon, and a new (smaller) friendly Lebanese state will have to be created that can connect with Syria’s northern provinces and allow Israel’s pipeline to be connected to Turkey.
Syria too will have to end up in Israel’s pocket … if not Damascus …at least Syria’s Northern provinces that control both access to the Mediterranean and access to Turkey for Israel’s natural gas pipelines.
So when will this play out? Israel will NOT need to export its natural gas until the fields are further developed, likely by 2016. So there is a three year window. But before then, Assad will have to be toppled, Syria will be splintered and Hezbollah will have to be destroyed. A new countries will emerge from these ashes. The whole map of the region will need to change.
It’s a little complicated; but the key elements of this plan are already in place. When the U.S. goes in with Russia to clear out Chemical Weapons in Syria, it’s not out of outrage for the victims, but because no one wants the weapons used when they march in. Assad doesn’t know it yet, but the party has not ended. It surely cannot end this way when there are trillions of dollars at stake.
Hezbollah will be next. Syria has to be cleared out first, then those same fighters that knock off Assad will go after Hezbollah – and this time Hezbollah will not have Syrian (and Iranian) forces to assist them!
As for Syrian ally Russia – their role in all this is very complicated. On the one hand the Russians stand to lose their monopoly pricing power in Europe as the current single source supplier to the region. And Russia’s state owned company (Gazprom), is in fact charging higher prices (as much as $200 per mcf more) then suppliers to Western Europe. But, in recognition of their influence and importance, Israel recently persuaded Russia to become a major partner in their energy exploitation ventures. Yes, Russia is now a major investor in Israel’s program.
Once the chemical weapons are cleared up, and the Ultra-Islamist rebels are all identified and killed, the Russians will then quietly walk out. Then, I expect an all-out invasion of Syria by the “Syrian Rebels” – and the end of Assad. This will then be followed up by an Israeli invasion of Lebanon. It’s all supposed to happen before the next U.S. Presidential election in 2016. This is Obama’s real mandate… this is how Obama is supposed to take special care of Israel (the ‘real’ Obamacare). But the schedule might be pushed back a year or two and be thrown into the lap of Hillary or dare I say it Ted Cruz! Susan Rice declared yesterday that this administration doesn’t want to be consumed by the Middle East. Do they have a choice?
Where does all this leave Iran and Iranians? Right now there are two opposite schools of thought with completely different ideas on how to deal with Iran. One camp (Israel, Turkey, Qatar and the Saudis, who despite the rhetoric are all actually working very closely with each other) think Iran should be directly challenged and cut to pieces – with new countries emerging out of the ashes (Kurdistan, Azerbaijan, Baluchestan etc.); on the other hand, there are some in the U.S. who believe that with diplomacy the Mullahs can become partners in this process and make the ‘price’ of change in the region a great deal lower… and delay the war. And to be fair, the U.S. has always been the one that ended up holding the bag for Israel’s (and the Rothschild’s) plans for the region – with over $3 Trillion dollars spent in Iraq alone. There is real American fear that Hezbollah and/or Syria will not be ‘walkovers’ while Iran remains a player on the other side. The costs of this war may exceed the costs in Iraq and the outcome is less certain. No one really knows how potent Iran might be. The Mullahs have been a great deal more resilient than anyone imagined and they too have huge strategic advantages. In the past 10 years the U.S. has systematically reduced its imports of oil from the Persian Gulf, fearing a reprisal from Iran, with for example closure of the Straits of Hormuz should a war break out (which has been the plan all along). Prior plans to put down Iran (via Saddam Hussein in the 80’s) were tragic failures. Even Israel, was squarely defeated by Iranian backed Hezbollah the last time they invaded Lebanon trying to create a 50 mile buffer zone on their northern border. And a major oil pipeline through Azerbaijan sits not even 40 miles from Iran’s northern border – and that could be quickly cut off by Iran causing havoc in Europe. And let’s not forget that the Mullahs purchased nuclear warheads from the Ukraine and have their own enrichment capacity that has not disappeared after 20 years of negotiations. War with Iran could turn ugly. Obama may be calculating that in fact he can delay the war with diplomacy – so a war with Iran is not on his watch – because a clear outcome against Iran may not be guaranteed.
Knowing the Mullahs, it is possible that they may in fact be playing up both sides, and that when the chips finally fall for Assad, (like the Russians) they will walk away and abandon both Assad and Hezbollah fighters. But the chips haven’t fallen yet. The Mullahs have significant allies: the whole Shia crescent from Iran, to Iraq, to the Alawites in Syria to Shiites around the Persian Gulf (including Bahrain and Saudi Arabia), to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The defeat of the Assad regime and the destruction of Hezbollah are not assured. Iran and the Shiites are a wild card that can change the game!
Israel’s grand master plan has to be balanced by other strategic interests the U.S. has – notably huge reserves in Central Asia and the competitive threats of both China and India. And maybe the US is also considering other options like looking for Iran to draw in all the ‘stans into America’s sphere of influence.
But who truly knows?
If I was in the Whitehouse, I would use this Oil Boom and the situation in Syria to persuade Israel to make a final peace. I would say “look if you want to put this pipeline through to Turkey, and all this revenue from Natural Gas, we’ll participate (and help topple the Assad regime etc.) only if you make a final peace with the Palestinians and Syria!” No? Peace can lead to a pipeline – more quickly and assuredly than this massive plan for regional war.
But Israel has not been persuaded yet, and Netenyahu wants to use this as an opportunity to topple the regime in Tehran, cut Iran up into 5 pieces and put in a group of pro-Israeli new governments …. Like the Rajavi’s in Farsestan (excuse me while I vomit) …and build a new series of pro-Israel micro-states, from an expanded Azerbaijan (under current Israeli ally “Aliev”), to Kurdistan, Shiastan … across to Lebanon?
Israel and the Rothchilds might still be living in the 1920’s – when the Middle East’s was last carved up and remapped for the benefit of Oil interests … creating the totally new ‘country’ of Iraq. Israel wants to use this oil boom to change everything in the region. Will they succeed?
One thing, though, is for sure. In the immortal words of Deep Throat – just follow the money – and the future will reveal itself. I am sure one way or another Israel will find a way to grab all the loot and export it. Pipelines will be built and all these fields on its borders will be exploited by Israel. Israel is going to be the land of gold, and will become more prosperous then any of the Petro-Capitals on the Persian Gulf.
Maybe I should have figured all this out back in 1995 when it was announced that the British government sold off its remaining shares of BP to the founders of Israel: the Rothschilds family. The Rothschilds are now co-owners of BP along with KIO (Kuwait’s Investment Office). And not surprisingly, the Rothschilds are investors in many of the companies exploiting the Levant Basin. And, not surprisingly, BP ended up with the lion share of Iraq’s oil fields after the U.S. invasion. Israel and the Rothschilds have been in the petro-dollar club for a long time.
Like I said, forget about Kuwait, Dharan, Bahrain, Dubai… the streets of Haifa will be paved with gold very soon. And history will repeat itself – it always does. Iranians will be sacrificed once again for BP (that is now the Rothschilds family) like in the 70’s for Britain’s North Sea oil and America’s Alaskan oil boom, like in the 50’s with Operation Ajax and like in the 20’s with Kossack Brigade’s coup. Don’t forget, BP was the largest investor and player in Alaska too!!! Wonder what BP is doing in Israel these days (Oh I’ll leave that for another blog)!!
Anyway, Iranians will be f***ed. We are all mere insects to be squashed by the mighty oil barons. Aren’t we? And I read somewhere that the Israelites will rule the world!!!!